In the original post of this series, I gave an overview of how I came to develop my concept of the performance equation. As a reminder, that equation is:
Preparation + Opportunity + Execution = Performance
Following the first post, I wrote a more detailed overview of preparation in Part II.
If you have not read the previous posts, I would recommend doing so as we will now take a deeper dive into the second element of the performance equation: opportunity.
Opportunity
I think that one of the primary reasons I initially conceptualized performance through an equation had to do with incorporating the element of opportunity. Moreover, I felt that when athletes fully understood each component of what opportunity entails, it gave them the greatest chance of achieving peak performance.
Opportunity can be understood in many different ways, but I will focus on a few concepts that have stood out to me.
First, opportunities are not guaranteed.
The picture I chose for this article is from Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The vantage point is looking at the entrance to a famous ski run called Corbet’s Couloir1, which is well known amongst skiing and snowboarding enthusiasts, made (even more) famous with a competition held each year called Kings and Queens.2
I included this photo because any time I have been to Jackson, Corbet’s has not been open (including the day of this photo). In other words, just because someone is prepared to ski Corbet’s, does not mean they will get the opportunity to ski Corbet’s.
Going further…
From 2014-2022 I was working with an athlete that wanted to swim the English Channel (crossing from England to France). The process began with a conversation in 2014, proceeded to booking a spot on a boat in 2016 (one solo swimmer per boat), and was set to take place in September of 2019. Five years of planning to get the opportunity to swim.
In 2019, we flew to England and watched the weather on the English Coast rage with incessant wind and rain for two full weeks.
We flew home without having attempted a swim. The swim was rescheduled for 2020.
2020 was marked by the COVID pandemic. The swim was rescheduled for 2021.
In 2021, the swim was scheduled to begin one evening only to be cancelled in the final hours before the boat was supposed to leave.
We waited another two weeks for a weather window to occur. It never happened. The swim was rescheduled for 2022.
In 2022, the athlete was finally given an opportunity to start the swim.3
Every year the athlete had prepared to swim, but was not afforded the opportunity to swim until 2022. You can do all the training in the world, but it may not always lead to the chance to showcase your ability.
Opportunities are not guaranteed.
I believe when athletes can fully appreciate the tenuous and uncertain nature of opportunity, it can lead to a great appreciation and embracement of each opportunity they are afforded. When this is fully understood, an athlete can avoid taking any particular opportunity for granted.
Second, all opportunities are unique. While some may be similar, they are never repeated.
A number of years ago, I was watching a show on ESPN and a former NFL player mentioned how he had made it to the NFC championship4 early in his pro career, but the team didn’t win, missing the Super Bowl by one game. This is not a particularly interesting anecdote on its own, but as a follow up to making this statement, the player mentioned how he did not think it was that big of a deal at the time because he figured he (and the team) would just win it the following year.
Not only did that not happen, but he never made it back to the NFC (or AFC) Championship game ever again in his career. As it turned out, that loss was the one and only opportunity he would ever have to be one game away from making it to the Super Bowl.
I often bring up this example when I talk about opportunity because I think it can be easy to fall into the trap of assuming that opportunities will be repeatable. But the reality is that every opportunity we have to compete is unique and will never happen again. In some cases, this can be appreciated more clearly, like having the chance to compete in an Olympics once every four years, but even when competing in a sport where competition can be plentiful (like a 162-game regular season in baseball), it does not change the fact that every single opportunity is unique unto itself.
Similar to understanding that opportunities are not guaranteed, when athletes can develop a deeper sense of understanding of the unique nature of (each) competition, it can lead to a better appreciation of the opportunity at hand, a heightened level of awareness and presence, and a better likelihood of capitalizing on the moment(s) they find themselves in.
Third, fitness heuristics are helpful, but do not guarantee performance.
Many years ago, I wrote an article for Endurance Corner5 about how to run fast(er) off the bike during the run leg of a triathlon. The article laid out some workouts and different conditioning methods to enhance the fitness required, but at the end of the article, I made a point that all the improved training will not lead to faster running off the bike, only the opportunity to do so.
This leads to what I called “fitness heuristics” which is essentially what most coaches and athletes might call “test sets” or “race predictor workouts.”
An easy example I typically include is one that Jack Daniels wrote about in his book, Daniels’ Running Formula6, where an athlete runs a series of 400 meter repeats off a 2:00 send (or close to 60” rest) in order to predict their mile times on the track. You can find similar workouts for other run distances on the internet as well as other sports and their analogous methods.
There is nothing wrong with using these workouts to help develop strategies for execution purposes in competition (in fact, they may be extremely helpful), but athletes can sometimes find themselves falling victim to a sense of complacency when these heuristics lead them to assuming that their upcoming performance is a foregone conclusion.
Instead, athletes need to remember that these types of workouts may suggest they have the fitness they need to perform at a higher level, but it only means they have the opportunity for success, not the guarantee of it.
Finally, athletes must embrace opportunity.
When we compete, we are vulnerable.
When we compete, we are putting ourselves in a position to find out our capabilities, which does not always lead to the outcome or answers we want. We may not be quite as good as we want to be (yet), or maybe we are(!).
However, when an athlete embraces the opportunity to compete and find out what they can do, it will serve their long term progression and potentially lead to (even) greater performances in the future.
It may seem like all athletes want to compete as that’s part of what makes an athlete an athlete.
In my opinion, this is not always the case. It is not unusual to see athletes who train and prepare exceptionally well also find themselves apprehensive of putting themselves in that vulnerable position of finding out what they are truly capable of. Furthermore, some athletes struggle to contextualize performances and attach too much importance to any one performance, potentially leading to avoidance rather than embracement.
What they may be missing is:
With each opportunity to compete, comes new opportunities to learn, grow, and progress.
I believe that the athletes who are willing to lean into this process and embrace each opportunity as they arise will have a better chance to perform at their highest possible levels over the course of their athletic careers. This ties into the concept of having a growth vs. fixed mindset, but it also is suggestive of having the curiosity to start, and the fortitude to continue, on one’s own athletic journey.
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In Part IV, I will discuss the final element of the performance equation: Execution
Preparation + Opportunity + Execution = Performance
Though the S&S Couloir should probably be more famous.
Watch Hans Mindnich do a wall ride for 2nd(!) place in 2021.
If you want to read more about this entire English Channel journey, you can read about it in this four part series.
The winner of the NFC Conference Championship Game and the winner of the AFC Conference Championship Games are the two teams that make it to the NFL Super Bowl.
Original website no longer exists, but some of the content is archived on Alan Couzens’ website.
I read this book for the first time in the early 2000’s and still use it to this day. Highly recommend.
Good one! I really like the coach’s high-level approach. Still, I’d love to hear your perspective as an athlete too, maybe connecting it to a real example, like when you crushed it in an Ironman. How did those opportunities show up in your training and fitness leading into the race, and also during the race itself, with the moves you made or how things unfolded? I see many athletes and coaches sticking too rigidly to their training or race plans, which leaves little room to spot opportunities, as you described. Or worse, it keeps them from ever testing where their true racing limits and potential opportunities really are.
Justin - I really enjoy your writing style- weaving in an athlete's story with key teachings on performance and execution. I look forward to reading the next part of the series. Keep them coming.